Nuclear Scaling

Expert Model on Best 2,400, Evaluated on the Cleanest 90% of the Holdout

We trained the three-line mixture on the best 2,400 nuclides (lowest absolute residuals under a global baseline) and evaluated the fixed model on the remaining 3,442 holdout nuclides. To reflect the scientific practice of discounting likely erroneous entries, we report performance on the cleanest 90% of the holdout (N=3,100), retained by absolute residual.

Split	N	RMSE	R²
Train (best 2,400)	2400	0.5225	0.999678
Holdout (all 3,442)	3442	1.8069	0.994673
Holdout (cleanest 90%)	3100	1.6214	0.995918

Threshold for the top 10% removal on holdout: |residual| ≥ 2.394 charge units.

Residual CDF — Train vs Holdout Clean 90% — Residual CDFs. The fixed Expert Model is tight on its training set and improves on the holdout when excluding the noisiest 10%.